Our latest thoughts

Dear Partner, During periods of volatility, we find it helpful to refocus from broad market narratives to the company level.  Microsoft serves as a compelling case study.  Despite its real-world dominance, and this will shock most readers...

Dear Partner, Overall, the AI buildout theme continues to underpin financial markets, while underlying uneconomic activity in the real economy becomes more uneven. We continue to witness pockets of excess with speculative behavior gaining traction.  We remain focused on any fundamental impact on the economy or overall markets, and we are seeing...

Dear Partner, As is so often the case, the market downdraft presented an opportunity rather than a risk. By treating our investments as long-term ownership of businesses and following a strategic plan, we can look past difficult periods. Imagine how easy it would be to get shaken out of your investments with a more short-term mindset, only to miss out on this quick bounce back...

Dear Partner, This letter intends to expand on our April flash report to investors, though we surprisingly have come full circle since our 2024 letter. In the annual letter, we had expressed caution regarding both the generally accepted theme of US exceptionalism and the fervent enthusiasm for all things AI. Then, in a...

Dear Partner, While US markets benefited from optimistic conditions and strong tailwinds driven by themes like US exceptionalism and AI, international markets remained more subdued. Historically high US index valuations coupled with increased risk-taking outside of the stock market have created a backdrop that demands caution.  However, these...

Dear Partner, Overall, equity markets appeared to grow more enthusiastic about lower interest rates as the Federal Reserve began to unwind its tight monetary policy of the past two years. In fact, long-term yields declined by almost a full percentage point during the quarter, which is particularly unique when...